On 6 February 2023, an M7.8 struck near Kahramanmaraş; nine hours later an M7.7 ruptured a second fault. Together they devastated a wide swathe of southern Türkiye and northern Syria, killing close to 58,000 people — the deadliest disaster of the year. The World Bank put direct physical damage in Türkiye at about USD 34 billion.
It was also the costliest insured catastrophe event of 2023, at roughly USD 6.2 billion. Set against the damage, that figure tells the harder story: close to 90% of the economic loss was uninsured — one of the starkest protection gaps a major economy has faced.
Two large ruptures in quick succession compounded the damage and the modelling challenge: back-to-back events, near-fault directivity, and widespread collapse of mid-rise reinforced-concrete buildings whose detailing did not match the demand.
Economic vs insured loss — the protection gap
What a complete model reveals
The 2023 sequence was not unprecedented to anyone who had studied the region's faults; it was under-insured and, in too many buildings, under-built. For a (re)insurer the lesson is twofold: model the full multi-rupture footprint and near-fault demand, and price the vulnerability of the real building stock — engineering-grade, not archetype — so the PML reflects how those structures actually fail.
How Xpectral closes the gap
- Model the sequence, not a single event. Back-to-back ruptures compound damage and accumulation — a single-scenario view understates the loss.
- Near-fault demand and real building vulnerability decide collapse; engineering-grade fragility, grounded in how mid-rise structures actually fail, is essential.
- The protection gap is the headline. Quantifying it precisely is the first step to closing it — and to pricing the exposure that is covered.
From engineering to risk intelligence
"Fragility curves today are built on simplified assumptions. Ours are built on 15 years of designing structures that cannot fail. By embedding performance-based seismic design into AI-driven models, we transform fragility from generic to engineering-grade. This is not an incremental improvement — it's a structural shift in how seismic risk is quantified."
— Carlos Caramés Molero, Founder & Partner, DynamisKey questions
How many people died in the 2023 Türkiye–Syria earthquakes?
Close to 58,000 people across Türkiye and Syria — the deadliest disaster of 2023 — following the M7.8 and M7.7 ruptures of 6 February 2023.
How much did the 2023 Türkiye earthquakes cost?
The World Bank estimated about USD 34 billion of direct physical damage in Türkiye. Insured losses were around USD 6.2 billion — the costliest insured catastrophe of 2023.
How big was the protection gap?
Roughly 90% of the economic loss was uninsured — one of the largest protection gaps a major economy has faced, concentrating the burden on households and the public purse.
Sources
- World Bank — Türkiye earthquake rapid damage assessment, February 2023
- Swiss Re Sigma No 1/2024 — natural catastrophes 2023
- USGS — M7.8 and M7.5/7.7 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence, 6 February 2023
Illustrative values based on publicly reported figures; ranges differ across published industry estimates. Not a substitute for a formal risk report.