Earthquake risk intelligence for the world's leading (re)insurers.
“Most probabilistic seismic models are calibrated mainly on public catalogs and historical seismicity. Xpectral is different: our models incorporate proprietary, project-grade seismic and engineering datasets developed for the design of critical infrastructure — drawing on experience from a broad portfolio of landmark projects, including the Fourth Bridge over the Panama Canal, the Dubai–Abu Dhabi high-speed rail corridor, and the San Salvador light rail system.”
PML, AAL, LEP curves (OEP + AEP) and SCR on any insured asset. Global coverage including emerging markets. API-first. A fraction of legacy cat model pricing.
One platform. Three products.
Sismicus models the hazard. Fragility models the asset. Risco turns both into the loss and pricing numbers (re)insurers underwrite on.
Sismicus
Regional catastrophe hazard models, calibrated on two decades of critical-infrastructure engineering — not generic catalogs.
Fragility
Engineering-grade fragility for every asset — how each structure actually responds, from 15 years of performance-based design.
Risco
The numbers your book runs on. Hazard and vulnerability, fused into loss and price at asset and portfolio level.
Our engine
A hazard engine calibrated against critical infrastructure — not textbooks.
The hazard lives in the planet's fault network. Our models are calibrated on the critical structures we engineered across it.
“Most probabilistic seismic models are calibrated mainly on public catalogs and historical seismicity.
Xpectral is different: our models incorporate proprietary, project-grade seismic and engineering datasets developed for the design of critical infrastructure — drawing on experience from a broad portfolio of landmark projects, including the Fourth Bridge over the Panama Canal, the Dubai–Abu Dhabi high-speed rail corridor, and the San Salvador light rail system.
Every project has contributed to a deeper understanding of structural performance under uncertainty.
This gives us a fundamental advantage: a hazard engine that is not only statistically sound, but informed by real-world engineering at the highest level.
We are now leveraging this unique data foundation to redefine seismic risk modeling.”
The hazard engine behind Xpectral is built on the same proprietary engineering dataset generated across 100+ critical infrastructure projects in 20+ countries. Each project is a calibration point where failure was not an option.
Engineering by Dynamis — 100+ projects, 20+ countries, 5 continents.
Inside the engine
The full CAT-modelling pipeline — probabilistic hazard, stochastic catalog, time integration — plus the engineering-grade calibration that off-the-shelf catalogs smooth over.
How the engine works
At the core, PSHA integrates magnitude, distance and rupture geometry across every credible source. GMPEs translate those hazard parameters into spectral demand at each site, with epistemic uncertainty propagated through a logic tree. Monte-Carlo sampling builds a stochastic event catalog spanning tens of thousands of synthetic years of seismicity. The catalog is then integrated over time and convolved with exposure and engineering-grade fragility — so what the cat-modelling team receives is a CAT model, not a hazard map: PML, AAL, LEP curves (OEP + AEP) and SCR.
Validated against the probabilistic hazard engines that cat-modelling and academic teams treat as reference. Every parameter, source and decision is auditable end-to-end.
What sets it apart
Near-fault directivity
Spatial variability of ground motion close to the fault is integrated probabilistically across rupture geometry — not collapsed to a single deterministic adjustment.
→ Tail risk on near-fault assets stops being a smoothed average.
Maximum-direction demand
Seismic demand is recorded at the most-demanding orientation, not the average across directions — consistent with how modern engineering practice and current codes evaluate performance.
→ Demand aligned with the orientation that actually controls failure.
Fling-step displacement
Pulse-like permanent ground displacement on assets sitting close to active faults is anticipated explicitly — a near-fault effect that off-the-shelf catalogs typically smooth over.
→ Long-period and displacement-sensitive assets priced correctly.
Structural-response calibration
Hazard outputs are anchored to how structures actually respond, through 100+ in-house non-linear analyses across critical-infrastructure projects — not textbook elastic assumptions.
→ PML and AAL track real inelastic behaviour at the loss limit state.
“Most catalogs document hazard.
Ours documents how hazard meets the structure — directivity integrated across rupture geometry, demand at the orientation that controls failure, near-fault displacement, and a structural calibration anchored to more than 100 in-house non-linear analyses.
That is what engineering-grade means at the hazard layer.”
For research desks
Read the technical methodology paper
Full citations, parameter lineage and the four phenomena worked through in detail. For modelling teams and cat research desks who need the engineering audit trail.
Open methodology paperOur fragility curves
From generic to engineering-grade — the difference between a model and a measurement.
Simplified structural typologies, limited real-world calibration — one curve per occupancy class.
15 years of designing structures that cannot fail — performance-based seismic design embedded per asset.
Explore FragilityFour grades of β, priced to the certainty you need“Fragility curves today are built on simplified assumptions. Ours are built on 15 years of designing structures that cannot fail.
By embedding performance-based seismic design into AI-driven models, we transform fragility from generic to engineering-grade.
This is not an incremental improvement — it's a structural shift in how seismic risk is quantified.”
Performance-based design proven on the Faisaliah water tanks (Saudi Arabia), Hospital de Tepic (Mexico) and nuclear-grade storage — structures where failure carries irreversible consequences. That engineering signal is embedded in every curve we produce.
The gap in the market
Legacy CAT models are expensive, opaque, and weak in emerging markets. There is a better way.
EUR per year for legacy CAT model licences
Legacy CAT model platforms are expensive, opaque, and slow to adopt open-science methodologies. Emerging-market coverage is weak or absent.
lower cost vs traditional ad-hoc studies
Engineering-grade risk intelligence at a fraction of the cost of bespoke consulting. API-first integration into your pricing and accumulation engines.
years of seismic catalog depth
Global coverage including LATAM, MENA and Southeast Asia — the emerging markets where top (re)insurers have growing, under-modelled exposure.
How it works
Portfolio-level risk intelligence. API-first. Designed for the workflows of cat modelling and underwriting teams.
Connect your portfolio
Upload your exposure data or connect via API. Global coverage — from established markets to emerging geographies across LATAM, MENA and Southeast Asia.
Risk engine runs
Our hazard engine — calibrated on real critical infrastructure engineering, not generic data — computes location-specific risk indicators for every asset in your portfolio.
Actionable risk outputs
PML, AAL, LEP curves (OEP + AEP) and SCR per asset and at portfolio level. Solvency II ready. Integrates directly into your pricing engine, actuarial models and accumulation controls.
Plans
From single-asset reports to portfolio assessments and full API integration. Built for global (re)insurers and cat-modelling teams.
Asset Report
One asset · one-shot
Delivered in 24–72h
For: Facultative underwriters, due-diligence teams, single high-value risks
- Full risk report for one insured asset
- PML at 1-in-100, 1-in-250 and 1-in-500 return periods
- AAL with engineering-grade fragility
- LEP curves (OEP + AEP) with full return-period breakdown
- Site-specific hazard and structural performance outputs
- SCR contribution — Solvency II compatible
- Delivered as PDF report + machine-readable JSON
- Validated against industry benchmarks
Portfolio Assessment
Bulk upload · one-shot engagement
Asset cap defined per engagement
For: Treaty teams, cat modelling, CROs
- Everything in Asset Report
- Bulk upload — CSV / Excel / API import
- Asset cap scoped per engagement
- Portfolio-level OEP and AEP curves
- Accumulation control by geography and peril
- Concentration limits and capacity monitoring
- SCR roll-up — Solvency II, NAIC, PRA compatible
- Interactive portfolio dashboard
- Engineering-led delivery
Enterprise API
Continuous · query at will
Real-time access · sandbox + production
For: Reinsurers, brokers and ILS funds with in-house engineering
- Everything in Portfolio Assessment
- Direct API access — query at will
- Native integration into pricing, accumulation and capital engines
- Sandbox and production environments
- Webhooks for portfolio-level events
- Custom rate limits per integration
- White-label option for reinsurance brokers
- Engineering-led onboarding + dedicated technical account manager
All plans include
Why Xpectral
Purpose-built for the workflows of cat modelling and underwriting teams. Not adapted from an engineering tool.
Speed
PML and AAL per asset in under 15 minutes. Portfolio LEP curves (OEP + AEP) in hours. No waiting weeks for a consulting firm to deliver a PDF.
Cost efficiency
Significantly lower total cost vs legacy CAT model licences. Transparent, usage-based pricing for smaller teams — enterprise contracts for top (re)insurers.
Global coverage
Authoritative global seismic catalogs. 130+ years of records. Strong emerging-market coverage where legacy CAT models are weak or unavailable.
API-first
REST API designed for direct integration into pricing engines, actuarial models and exposure management platforms. No desktop software.
Engineering-grade
Risk indicators backed by Dynamis — 15 years of performance-based seismic design on critical infrastructure. Not a black-box statistical model.
Validated
Methodology validated against industry-standard benchmarks. Solvency II, NAIC and PRA ready outputs. Audit trail available for regulatory submissions.
Who we serve
Purpose-built for the teams that price, model and manage catastrophe risk.
Reinsurance
Portfolio-level earthquake risk intelligence for cedants, treaty underwriters and cat modelling teams at major reinsurers. Covers the emerging geographies where legacy models lack resolution.
- ✓LEP curves (OEP + AEP) and AAL across full portfolio
- ✓Accumulation control by zone and peril
- ✓SCR outputs — Solvency II, NAIC, PRA ready
- ✓API integration into pricing and accumulation engines
Data foundation
Open-source data from the world's most respected scientific institutions. Transparent, traceable, reproducible.
Global seismic catalog
130+ years of instrumental records
Authoritative worldwide earthquake records from leading scientific institutions. Continuous ingest via standard seismological APIs — full coverage of every market our clients underwrite.
Active fault database
Seismotectonic attributes per source
Global active fault inventory with slip rates, geometry and recurrence parameters. Sourced from open-science research used by top scientific institutions worldwide.
Peer-reviewed bulletins
Verified pre-1970 historical records
Independent peer-reviewed seismological bulletins. Complementary catalog with verified historical records — essential for long return-period analysis where short instrumental data falls short.
Site classification
Global soil & site amplification
Global site condition data for local amplification modeling. Used to produce site-specific risk indicators rather than generic regional averages.
About
World-class seismic engineering meets modern risk intelligence technology.
Creative Solutions for a Safer World
Xpectral is a seismic risk intelligence platform built on Dynamis engineering. Dynamis is an international engineering consultancy specialising in earthquake engineering, structural dynamics and complex structures — 100+ projects in 20+ countries across 5 continents.
Dynamis was founded by engineers from the École Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées (Paris), with deep expertise in performance-based seismic design, complex structures and forensic engineering. Xpectral turns that engineering into a platform that delivers engineering-grade risk intelligence to the world's leading (re)insurers.
Our mission: make engineering-grade earthquake risk intelligence accessible to every (re)insurer with seismic exposure — including in the emerging markets where legacy CAT models are weak or unavailable.
Methodology & compliance
Request a demo
Tell us about your portfolio and we will come back with a tailored proposal within 24 hours.